BJP wins in Amritsar, exit polls make headlines. But are they accurate?

BJP wins in Amritsar, exit polls make headlines. But are they accurate?

Voting for 13 Lok Sabha seats from Punjab is taking place today in the seventh and final phase of the 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections. Ahead of the polls, a purported exit poll graph published by India Today showing the BJP leading in Amritsar has gone viral on social media platforms. The purported exit poll graph, titled “Amritsar Exit Poll Prediction 2024”, predicts the BJP with 33%, followed by the Indian National Congress with 28% and the AAP with 25%.

Several X and Facebook users shared a graph claiming to show the BJP winning in Amritsar, Punjab. However, news checkers found that India Today had not published any such polling data and the viral graph was edited.

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Posts like this here, here and here.

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of Amritsar The constituency is expected to see a multi-front contest with candidates from the BJP, Congress, AAP and SAD. The INC has fielded a sitting MP. Gurjeet Singh AujlaIn 2016, the BJP nominated Taranjit Singh Sandhu, a Punjab minister and AAP leader from Amritsar. Kuldeep Singh DhaliwalSAD’s Anil Joshi is also contesting from Amritsar constituency.

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Keyword search for “India Today” and “Amritsar Exit Poll” Google The media did not publish any reports suggesting such data would be made public.

We then looked at the virus graphic. Google Lens That is what we Business Today The report was dated March 7, 2022. The report, which carried a graphic similar to the widely circulated image, said: “Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party is set to win a clear victory in the Punjab elections, according to exit polls by India Today and Axis My India.”

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Screenshot from Business Today website

To elaborate on the results of the poll: India Today The March 2022 report said, “The poll predicted that Arvind Kejriwal’s party would win 41% of the votes, or 76-90 seats, in the 117-seat Assembly. Exit polls showed that the incumbent Indian National Congress would come second, likely to win 19-31 seats, or 23% of the votes. The BJP coalition, including former prime minister Amarinder Singh’s Punjab Lok Congress, is likely to win 1-4 seats, or 7% of the votes….”

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Comparing the exit poll graph featured in the India Today report with the image that went viral, one can conclude that the latter has been edited.

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Furthermore, India Today Rahul Kanwal He said the image that went viral was fake. In his X post, Kanwal said, “Be assured that all ‘polls’ you see before 6.30pm on June 1 are fake.”

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Screenshot of X post by @rahulkanwal

Exit polls banned from 7am April 19 to 6:30pm June 1: ECI

Ahead of the start of the 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections, the Election Commission of India has Exit polls From 7:00 AM on April 19th to 6:30 PM on June 1st. From 7:00 AM on April 19th to 6:30 PM on June 1st. This is Article 126A The Representation of the People Act, 1951 states that “during such period as may be notified by the Election Commission, no person shall conduct exit polls or publish or advertise in any print or electronic medium or disseminate in any other manner the results of any exit poll.”

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We can therefore conclude that the much talked about exit poll graph showing the BJP leading with 33% vote share in Amritsar is an edited one. India Today does not publish such data.

(This article was originally published in News Checkerand was re-released by NDTV as part of the Shakti Collective.

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